New Media
Electrical grid expert has never seen frost cause massive power outage
CBC, Jason Warick
“This isn’t the craziest I’ve heard, but it is an unlikely explanation,” said Robert McCullough, who has 40 years of experience consulting for public utilities and private energy firms in Canada and the U.S.
PacifiCorp study puts heat on utility’s coal plants
Portland Business Journal, Peter Danko
“How rare it is that the two concerns, environment and economics, are in alignment, but they are,” said Robert McCullough, an independent energy analyst.
California fires bring upheaval to utilities as they face massive liabilities
Los Angeles Times, Matt Stiles
“It’s in their interest to gold-plate the system,” said Robert McCullough, whose Oregon-based McCullough Research consults with power companies across the nation. “Nobody wants a dangerous situation like we’re in now.”
New Articles
Taking the path less followed
Vancouver Sun, Robert McCullough
A month ago, I had the honour of sitting down with the NDP cabinet and Premier John Horgan. I gave a detailed presentation why proceeding with Site C would be costly and risky. Curiously, after the cabinet meeting the only followup involved questions from specific MLAs — not inquiries from the cabinet or their staff.
Opinion: Site C proponents fall prey to Sunk Costs Fallacy
Vancouver Sun, Robert McCullough
This fallacy, which is related to status-quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment. For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat ‘just to get their money’s worth.’ Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because s/he feels that s/he has to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction.
Opinion: Renewables cheaper, more dependable than Site C
The Vancouver Sun, Robert McCullough
The problem with Site C is not that it is a hydroelectric project. The problem with Site C lies in the economics. When Site C was proposed, fossil fuel prices were high. The cost of renewables were twice what they are now. Loads were not increasing terribly rapidly (load growth has been flat in B.C. for the past decade), but the forecasts were very optimistic. It is not an exaggeration to say that everything has changed. Site C is relatively costly compared to the alternatives and very costly compared to the wholesale market. It is in our power to do far more and spend far less.
New Reports
Why Have PJM Capacity Markets Decoupled from Actual Capacity Bids?
Privatizing BPA’s Assets and Liabilities
Current attempts to privatize BPA make us curious. What would a total privatization of BPA likely look like?
ASC 980 and the Decision to Complete Site C
At the invitation of the Canada Institute, I gave a speech on the decision-making process behind continuing construction of the Site C Dam. This memo is based on my presentation on April 11, 2018.