McCullough Research provides research
and analysis on subjects of interest to the energy industry. The reports below may be downloaded at no
charge unless otherwise indicated.
2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
2008
August 6, 2008
Seeking the Causes of the July 3rd Spike in World Oil Prices
Senators Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) have released a report by Robert McCullough seeking the cause of the spike in world oil prices on July 3rd, 2008. (Updated September 16, 2008)
The CFTC issued an official report in September of 2008 citing Robert McCullough's August 6th Report on the spike in oil prices. CFTC Report
Senator Maria Cantwell's press release issued August 7th, 2008 highlights Robert McCullough's August 6th report. Press Release
April 7, 2008
Kaye Scholer's Redacted "Analysis of Possible Complaints Relating to Maryland's SOS Auctions"
It is our belief that Marylanders still do not have all of the facts necessary to understand why the price of electricity remains high. This report expresses our concerns.
March 19, 2008
March 2008 Update: Why are Electricity Prices in RTOs Increasingly Expensive?
This report updates the data from our February, 2008 article on the increasing price differential between RTO and non-RTO states.
February 1, 2008
Some Observations on Societe Generale's Risk Controls
"Are existing controls within corporations such as Enron or Societe Generale sufficient to prevent abuses? Should global external regulatory controls be strengthened? ... If internal controls are as weak as the Societe Generale saga appears to imply, signifigant regulatory reforms may be required."
French Government preliminary report:
French, English
2007
December 17, 2007
Ex-Parte Testimony in Morgan Stanley v. Snohomish
"A group of economists, including three expert witnesses from the underlying FERC case, filed an amicus curiae brief with the Supreme Court in Morgan Stanley v. Snohomish. In the main, the brief reiterates their original testimony. The brief makes a number of claims that are simply erroneous. Rather than cite authoritative primary sources, the economists rely on secondary or even tertiary sources. In several cases, the brief has searched out references that have been addresses in the original case or parallel cases at FERC, which a number of the authors would know to have been in error. This brief should be considered ex-parte testimony, and poorly researched testimony at that."
December 17, 2007
"Instant Request" to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
"Today, a national coalition had petitioned FERC to "expand the scope" of its proposed Federal Power Act Section 206 'investigation'. The Coalition is requesting that the Commission "address the core issues of whether the RTO markets are producing unjust and unreasonable wholesale power prices."
August 29, 2007
A Rebuttal to Dr. Hogan: "Looking for the 'Voom'"
Earlier this year, Dr. William Hogan issued a paper on the regulation of wholesale electricity markets titled, "Acting in Time: Regulating Wholesale Electricity Markets". Mr. McCullough has written a rebuttal to Dr. Hogan's paper noting that the market set-up favored by Dr. Hogan will not reduce price volatility, and does little to encourage the investments needed to meet our nation's growing demand.
2006
September 26, 2006
Did Amaranth Advisors LLC Attempt to
Corner the March 2007 NYMEX at
Henry Hub?
In what Amaranth's founder, Nicholas Maounis, called "a
series of unusual events,"in only a few days in September 2006, Amaranth lost $6 billion (65% of the fund's total value). On September 14 alone, it lost
$560 million on its natural gas trades. While the financial disaster is
impressive, a more pressing issue of far more concern is how a small player in the
natural gas trading sector amassed a natural gas position significantly
larger than NYMEX without comment or intervention by FERC, the SEC or
the CFTC. As an energy research firm with expertise
in decoding Enron market manipulations during the Western Market Crisis of
2000-2001, the downfall of Amaranth suggests that Congress should close the " Enron loophole."
May
18, 2006
Developing a Power
Purchase/Fuel Supply Portfolio: Energy Strategies for Cities and Other
Public Agencies
"One year ago, President Bush signed the Energy Policy
Act of 2005 into law. At the time, Senator John McCain commented: 'This
bill left no lobbyist behind.' Indeed, a close reading of EPAct05
reveals that Congress paid scant attention to U.S. energy statistics
while drafting the solutions found in the bill. As we now grapple
with its legacy of legislative ineptitude, I believe we must go back to
energy basics before we can truly help our consumers. When in a muddle,
it is difficult to recognize a fundamental shift in market realities.
The last fifteen years of inexpensive natural gas provided a market
advantage to simple natural gas units. Now high capital cost, low fuel
cost coal units are gaining ascendancy. Entities with advantages in
financing will be able to employ emerging technologies with high
capital costs and low fuel costs. This will put the economic advantage
back in the court of public power."
May
8, 2006
Robert McCullough's Report
to the Democratic Policy Committee on Regulation and Forward Markets
For additional material and information concerning this matter please also visit the testimony web page of this website.
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2005
April
12, 2005
Enron's Per Se Anit-Trust
Activities in New York
In June
2004, our review of Enron's emails found material regarding Enron's per
se anti-trust activities in Alberta. "Project
Stanley" involved a simple market division arrangement between Enron
and Powerex. During high load periods, off-system imports from Powerex
made them the "pivotal supplier" in Alberta. Enron's John Lavorato
designed a scheme to disguise the pivotal supplier by allowing Enron to
make the price setting bid in Alberta, thus disguising the arrangement
from the province's market surveillance officials.
April
12, 2005
Farmers
Outperform Sheiks: Why Adding Ethanol to the U.S. Fuel Mix Makers Sense
in a $50-plus Barrel Oil Market
Why ethanol is economically
competitive with gasoline and will remain so when oil prices
are
above $44/barrel
April 9, 2005
Creating Scarcity from
Abundance
Reports
from California policymakers suggest the possibility of blackouts in the upcoming summer. This is a reflection of California's
continued pursuit of a centralized administrative solution to
reliability leaving it ill-equipped to address everyday operational
issues. In particular, a California Independent System Operator (CISO)
study forecasts forced outages higher than the ISO's 7% operating
reserve criterion. If this is the case, either the outages need to be
addressed or the criterion increased.
February
15, 2005
Employment Impacts of
Shifting BPA to Market Pricing
The proposed
federal budget has includes a provision to raise BPA’s rates 20% per
year to match market rates. While the concept of market rates is always
attractive, this proposal carries risks for both the
regional economy and the Western.
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2004
June
5, 2004
ERCOT BES Event
An explanation of Balancing Energy Services
published
by Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on June 5, 2004. Robert McCullough reports that this is not the first time the balancing energy
price has been suspect, and that wholesale energy buyers in Texas should be
alarmed.
June 28, 2004
Reading Enron's
Scheme Accounting Materials
An explanation of
the relevance of recently released internal accounting information from
Enron's West Power Desk in connection with the current FERC
investigation of market manipulation in the Western Energy Markets
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2003
August 14, 2003
A Matter of Seconds:
Blackout Report
An examination of the August 14, 2003 blackout; Robert
McCullough faults the lack of communication and organization within the
centralized institutions responsible for maintaining the North American grid.
May
28, 2003
Fat Boy Report
Regional economic losses from
Enron's "Fat Boy" trading scheme.
May
16, 2003
CERA Decision Brief
A rebuttal to a report by CERA (Cambridge Energy Research
Associates) on the FERC's Final Staff Report in Docket No.
PA02-2. Robert McCullough argues against CERA's findings and provides data
and sources of information supporting his conclusions.
January 16, 2003
California
Electricity Price Spikes: The Factual Evidence
A response
to "California Electricity Price
Spikes: The Facts" by Susan Pope. Robert McCullough contests Pope's findings.
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2002
November
29, 2002
C66 and Article Congestion
Transmission in January 2001
This memorandum looks at how the California Independent System
Operator (ISO) caused artificial congestion on transmission lines due
to "C66" type contracts that were intended to ensure transfer
capability on the intertie.
September
17, 2002
Three Crisis Days at the
California Crisis
A report
to the California State Senate's Select Committee to
Investigate Price Manipulation that examines the significance of events on
three specific days. Robert McCullough explains that the California Independent System Operator's
ineffectual management of the electric system may have allowed market
players to manipulate the market.
July
9, 2002
Market Efficiencies
A brief
report on the efficiencies of competitive markets.
June 26, 2002
Senate Fact Sheet
A fact sheet produced for the U.S. Senate concerning key facts that are misrepresented in discussions about the California electricity crisis.
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June 5, 2002
Congestion
Manipulation "Death Star"
Analysis of several documents on Enron Corporation's manipulation of the California Independent System Operator produced by Robert McCullough at the request of California State Senator Joseph Dunn.
May 5, 2002
Enron's Workout Plan
McCullough
Research report regarding Enron's workout plan, "OpCo"
March
31, 2002
A History of LJM2
The history of LJM2, one of
Enron's unaffiliated entities managed by Andrew Fastow
February 7, 2002
Understanding LJM
McCullough Research report regarding Enron's LJM.
January
22, 2002
Understanding
Whitewing
McCullough Research report
regarding the Enron financial vehicle,
"Whitewing."
January 10, 2002
Deconstructing Enron's
Collapse
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2001
January
19, 2001
Wholesale
Pricing and Location of New Generation
Robert
McCullough discusses past, present, and future factors affecting
wholesale pricing in the electric market.
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